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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 27 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model