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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 30 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model