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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 10 – Miami Dolphins 33

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to MIA 28 for 15 yards (38-Ja.Davis) [43-A.Van Ginkel].

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.33 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model