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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard to BAL 45 for 1 yard (95-M.Garrett; 28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.68 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model