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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 28

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model