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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model