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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model