Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 16

(:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 32 for 7 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -1.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model