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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to BAL 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (51-Ma.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model