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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen (21-R.Darby).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model