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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 6-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model