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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 65

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model