4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 43

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-27-N.Hairston.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model