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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to LV 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 29 for 21 yards (20-T.Pollard; 29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP