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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to LV 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model