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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 2-G.Zuerlein 59 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model