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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 6-A.Cole punts 32 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP