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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LV 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP