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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP