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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to DAL 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.66 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model