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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 2-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model