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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 22 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to LV 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 9 yards (57-L.Gifford; 53-F.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model