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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 2-D.Carlson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.70 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model