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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 33

What Actually Happened

(:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model