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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 95

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LV 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 95, worth -5.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 53, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model