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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP