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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-31-Mi.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model