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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 41

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-54-U.Gilbert.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model