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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 89

Cincinnati Bengals 41 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to PIT 36, Center-46-C.Harris. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 36 for no gain (80-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 89, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model