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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model