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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to WAS 9, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.57 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP