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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 26-R.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.12 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model