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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to WAS 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model