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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to WAS 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model