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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 25, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP