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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 17 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP