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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 64

Washington Commanders 17 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to SEA 17, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-30-T.Apke.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP