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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 56

Washington Commanders 17 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to SEA 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model