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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 22

Washington Commanders 17 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 1-D.Carter to SEA 7 for 15 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model