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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 17 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(2:25) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 82-L.Thomas (33-J.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model