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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 51

Washington Commanders 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to SEA 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.32 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model