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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DEN 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 19 for 14 yards (31-Da.Williams). PENALTY on DEN-94-A.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at DEN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.93 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model