4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 42

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 32 for 10 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model