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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 8

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 33-J.Williams up the middle to KC 9 for -1 yards (50-W.Gay, 24-M.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model