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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP