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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 48

Denver Broncos 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle to KC 42 for 6 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -0.99 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model