Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(6:04) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 21-M.Hughes to KC 21 for 3 yards (12-M.Ford, 53-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model