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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.60 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model