Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-T.Benjamin pushed ob at SF 37 for 22 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.88 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model