4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.62 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model